Italy vs Norway

This is an interesting game because there is still a lot to be decided in this group. Home team needs a draw or a win in order to guarantee the first place in the group and the best draw for Euro 2016. Norway, on the other hand, needs a win here in order to secure a direct spot for the main draw. Croatia has the easy job of winning against Malta today and that is important to know as well. I expect this game to be competitive, but slow paced in the start. Neither team wants to concede the first goal so I see them playing cautiously in the first half and not risk much. Medium stake for this one. Good Luck.

Most goals in 2nd half at odds 2.30

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Belgium vs Israel

Belgium and Israel are playing a match in the last round of Euro 2016 qualifying stage. Belgium already secured their spot in the main draw, while Israel has little to no chance of grabbing that third spot leading to Playoff round. But still they will attack the goal and play aggressively. What I found interesting today is the Referee that's in charge of this game. After looking into some games Sidiropoulos officiated, I came to an obvious conclusion. 

Counting in the pressure and the last game these teams played (7 cards), I will be backing the over 3.5 cards. Medium stake for this one. Good Luck

Over 3.5 cards in ordinary time at odds 1.80

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KIF Kolding Koebenhavn vs Pick Szeged

Pick Szeged is in a must win situation here and they have to boost their chances to reach next stage from this very tough group . They have started with a great win at home 31-30 against Kielce but they have lost their last 2 matches away against Vardar and at home against giant Barcelona by just 2 goals after a very good game . I feel like this roster deserves more recognition and respect and the odds given are an understatement of Hungarian side.
Kolding is coming off a 3 heavy defeats and i doubt they can be a tough opponent here even if they will find their best form. Medium stake for this one. Good Luck.

Pick Szeged to win against KIF Kolding Koebenhavn in ordinary time at odds 1.94

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Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail Blazers

Sacramento Kings are doing a fine job in this preseason and they are slowly but surely gearing up for the season opening. What they did this summer is a step in the right direction. After much confusion and strange roster moves last year they are hoping that this season will be a stepping stone for the franchise to get back into playoffs. Portland is in the rebuild phase and they are looking to use this season for developing Vonleh and a refinement of Plumlee so I don't expect them to get to playoffs this year. Tonight I give the edge to the home side just because they will be playing in Sacramento and fans can finally be excited about the team and their potential. Smaller stake for this one. Good Luck.

Sacramento Kings Asian Handicap -3.50 in full event at odds 1.87

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Czech Republic vs Turkey

This group is one of the biggest surprises in this qualifying cycle of the Euro 2016. Everyone expected that Netherlands would win this group and that Turkey and Czech Republic would duke it out for that second and third spot. Well, the outcome is completely different. Iceland and Czech Republic already cemented their spots in the main draw while Turkey struggles to keep that last spot amongst third placed teams. They will surely need to go for a win today as they have nothing to lose, but lots to gain. Netherland in a dire situation and they don't even hold they key for their placement themselves. Turkey has the luxury of knowing the outcome of the game that Netherlands play earlier in Kazakhstan, and if they win, it's all in for Turkey. In that scenario, I expect Turkey to press hard and they will be vulnerable to counters. An entertaining game is expected tonight I am hoping both goalkeepers will have to pull the ball out of the net. Smaller stake for this one. Good Luck.

Both teams to score in ordinary time - yes at odds 1.87

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Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Wales

Bosnia is looking at a very difficult task regarding this Qualifying cycle for Euro 2016. They are in the tough position and holding the 4th spot on the table. Today's game will decide a lot of things in this group and Bosnia has no other choice than to on an all out attack against Wales. They will need a win here in order to keep their hopes of the playoff round alive. Wales is holding the top spot in the group, but they cannot afford to roll over and wait the end of the cycle. If they concede today, they will need to open up and attack the home side. I see good chances of an attractive game tonight and for the home side, there is nothing to be lost if they go all tonight. Medium stake for this one. Good Luck.

Total goals over 2.50 goals in ordinary time at odds 2.22

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Performance review

As expected, that ROI% is starting to stride towards the expected limits. It has been running a bit high, but the downswing in the last couple of games came as a reality check. We still made a profit over the last 25 bets, a modest one, but that is actually how sustainable strategy looks like. Last 10 picks were a bit forced and some of them were robbed of the real value, but that was caused by the lack of good games. Do not be discouraged, it's not called "Variation" without a reason. The betting strategy is only good if it's making money in the long run, otherwise it's just called "gambling". So here are the numbers after 75 bets.

Average odds:	2.16
Winrate:	56.00%
Total staked:	596
Total returned:	728.00
Priofit:	132
ROI:	22.15%

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Liechtenstein vs Sweden

With the 2 straight losses, Sweden placed themselves in a very tough position. They are now third in the group and face a real danger of not qualifying for the main draw. This game will be important for them, and I expect them to take it seriously. And they will have to be convincing as well cause their goal difference could hurt them. Home team should not be able to pose a threat for the much better Sweden squad, and I think they won't play defensively either. There is much to be gained if they go out aggressive today. I can easily see this game going over 3 goals and great odds are giving this game much value. Medium stake for this one. Good Luck.

Total goals over 3.50 goals in ordinary time at odds 2.62

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