Roma vs Udinese

This is a very tough 2-week stretch for They played last week 3 games and will be doing so in the next 7 days as well. Considering they are standing good in the Seria A and not so well in the Champions League, they will need to prioritize focus on the game against Leverkusen next week. But that focus will have to manifest itself somewhere. This analysis is basically a risk assessment bet. They play against Udinese that should not pose a real treat for them, but they are coming off a tough game against Fiorentina, and they traveling to Milano for a clash against Inter on Saturday, only to face a deciding match against Leverkusen on Wednesday. So they will have to sacrifice somewhere and my guess is that Udinese game has the least importance for them. They can win with a reserve squad here if they play a solid game and this is where I see a chance of this game being a good value bet on the underdog. The odds are really good for me and I will back this option with a medium stake. Good Luck.

Udinese Asian Handicap +1.50 in ordinary time at odds 1.83

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Atlanta Hawks vs Detroit Pistons

These teams met in the last game of the preseason, and Detroit won in a pretty one sided game. But the circumstances are way more different today. Atlanta rested all the key players on Friday night, but today they will be charging full steam! They want to open the season with a win and there is an interesting match ahead of us. There will be a lot of difficulty of the Pistons tonight as they face the Hawks full defensive squad at one end, and then a fast paced spacing offense on the other. I can easily see Detroit regressing to a more individual approach to the game which in terms yields a low scoring game. Medium stake for the official NBA betting season opener. Good Luck.

The match between Atlanta Hawks and Detroit Pistons will end with under 198.50 points in full event at odds 2.05

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PSG vs St Etienne

There is an interesting movement in the market into the favor of the home team. It seems like bookmakers and bettors alike are certain that PSG will dominate St Etienne in this game and I just love these types of games. This is the moment where betting against general public has value. If you look at the PSG results they seem impressive, but a HT/FT stat shows that they are not dominating all that much. 5 out of 10 games were undecided at the half time and the same stat goes for St Etienne as well. I am seizing an opportunity for a thin value bet here as the odds are actually going up. They currently top out at 2.20 but they may go higher still. I believe that as the match draws near more bettors will realize and invest heavily, which in terms will bring the value down, but at these odds i am happy to back this option with a medium stake. Good Luck.

Outcome of the half time is either x or 2 at odds 2.20

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AFC Bournemouth vs Tottenham Hotspur

In the days leading up to this match, I found it quite confusing that the odds given here are that high. As an explanation, I reasoned that couple of factors may have led the bookmakers to have less faith in the Spurs than i do. First of Totneham has only one win in the last 6 games in all competitions. Some may take that as a sign that they are on the decline of form. Second factor is that this is a 3rd game for the Spurs in a week and fatigue is a consideration, but there was in international break so they had plenty of time to get ready for this tempo. I recon that treands and a subjective thing, especially with the sample size this small, so i choose to ignore the stats and recent resultsa and focus purely on this game. Tottenham has a better squad and they are way more likely to come off as winners today, and even if there is a shred of value on that option, which there is, i am unwilling to skip it. Smaller stake for this one. Good Luck.

Tottenham Hotspur to win against AFC Bournemouth in ordinary time at odds 2.25

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Performance review

We have made some tweaks in our pick selection and bounced back from a downswing around 70th - 80th and we are really happy with our results. These first 100 picks were sort of a benchmark for us where we set some goals up and most of them were achieved:

Having a win rate over 55% ✔
Having average odds slightly better than 2.0 ✔
Having ROI % run over 10%, ✔
Post picks with regular frequency, minimum 5 a week ✔
Objective focus on value/general public ✔
Fine tune stake size system to minimize risk and maximize profit
Fine tune publishing system so that picks get to bettors in a timely fashion ✔
Set up a regular weekly preview blog

Most of them we were able to accomplish but we are still working on a mailing system to speed up a delivery process because lots of our picks are extremely time sensitive. And the stake size strategy is still kind of a mystery for us. We know that staking the same amounts on odds ranging from 1.57 to 7.2 is probably not the most efficient strategy, but the sample size of 100 picks is still too low for us to adjust it so until we find a best way to calculate the real value/stake size, we will continue to stake every pick with 8 points. This is what first 100 picks look like in numbers:

• Average odds:      2.10
• Winrate:                 58%
• Total staked:         796
• Total Returned:     976.08
• ROI:                        22.62%
• Profit:                     180.08

A couple of the goals in the coming months will be a broader focus on sports other than football and including a suggestion box for you to ask about games you want to bet on. Most people like to bet on teams with heart in mind and that is one of the reasons they are losing, so the" analyze this game" section could be a success. Next review will be after 150 bets and until then, Good Luck.

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Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers

The home side is an offensive minded squad that plays aggressive style football, and with a quite success. 5 out of the last 9 games they've played ended with at least 4 goals. Attacking teams often are vulnerable to counter attacks so I expect this game to be very efficient. The away team has a solid roster and they are capable of very fast counter attack strategy. Last time these teams met, there was 5 goals on the match. There is value in the over 2.75 bet and with great odds I am to back it with a smaller stake. Good Luck.

Total goals over 2.75 goals in ordinary time at odds 1.84

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Gent vs Valencia

There is an interesting dynamic in the group H of this year's Champions League. With Zenit winning all three games, and Valencia occupying the second spot on the table, an important battle is being fought for the third spot that leads to Europe League. Gent has drawn the first game with Lyon and they need to collect any amount of points before they face them for a rematch in France. The best opportunity for that is a match against Valencia. This will be one of the most important games for them this season and motivation is the key for this game. They have a solid squad and are doing well in the domestic championship, but a spring in Europe is a priority for them. Valencia has the second spot almost secured and a point in Belgium is not a bad result for them either. Bookmakers are giving really good odds on a home team double chance and there is a ton of value in backing this option. Medium stake for this one. Good Luck.

Ordinary time's outcome is either x or 1 at odds 1.86

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Arsenal vs Everton

All eyes were on Arsenal when they played a Champions League group game against Bayern Munich. In a very important match, they performed well, but the result is a bit misleading. Arsenal was maybe a slightly better in a high-pressure game and they got the points needed. But the real cost of that game will be shown today. They host Everton and are already expected to win 3 points, but I don't think it is going to be that easy for them. Everton is completing a 3 game series against top clubs from Premier League and today's game will by no means be a rollover for them. They have a good squad and will try to exploit the emotional fatigue home team has and a surprise here is not impossible. Smaller stake for this one. Good Luck.

Everton Asian Handicap +1.50 in ordinary time at odds 1.79

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