Performance review

As expected, that ROI% is starting to stride towards the expected limits. It has been running a bit high, but the downswing in the last couple of games came as a reality check. We still made a profit over the last 25 bets, a modest one, but that is actually how sustainable strategy looks like. Last 10 picks were a bit forced and some of them were robbed of the real value, but that was caused by the lack of good games. Do not be discouraged, it's not called "Variation" without a reason. The betting strategy is only good if it's making money in the long run, otherwise it's just called "gambling". So here are the numbers after 75 bets.

Average odds:	2.16
Winrate:	56.00%
Total staked:	596
Total returned:	728.00
Priofit:	132
ROI:	22.15%

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Liechtenstein vs Sweden

With the 2 straight losses, Sweden placed themselves in a very tough position. They are now third in the group and face a real danger of not qualifying for the main draw. This game will be important for them, and I expect them to take it seriously. And they will have to be convincing as well cause their goal difference could hurt them. Home team should not be able to pose a threat for the much better Sweden squad, and I think they won't play defensively either. There is much to be gained if they go out aggressive today. I can easily see this game going over 3 goals and great odds are giving this game much value. Medium stake for this one. Good Luck.

Total goals over 3.50 goals in ordinary time at odds 2.62

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Slovenia vs Lithuania

Lithuania has a bad Euro Qualification cycle, they are in 5th place, but more importantly they only scored 4 goals in 8 games. Slovenia holds the 3rd place and they can qualify for the playoff round, proven that they win tonight. Slovenia has a quite strong team, lead by Novakovic with 6 goals. Lithuanians will have problems with him on defence. Slovenia played solid in a win over Lithuania 2:0 with Novakovic scoring both goals. What they need to do today is replicate that game, start aggressively early and there should be no problems. Lithuania has problems with motivation and there are even some rumours that they have problems with the coach. Smaller stake for this one. Good Luck.

Half time / Full Time will end with 1 / 1 at odds 2.15

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