Player performance

Evan Fournier over under line sits @ 10.5 points at the moment and there is real value in playing this one under. He does not play a lot of minutes and when he does he is rarely driving to the basket. He has a weird shot that is easy to block and is not a very good shooter under pressure. He averaged 5.0 points last season against OKC, in 17.3 minutes and even less this season overall. Unless he strikes a really prolific shooting night and hits a couple of 3 pointers early, I expect him to go well under 10.5

Under 10.5 points in the full event at odds 1.85

Tobias Harris will have a difficult task of matching up with Kevin Durant. In a matchup like that, a primary concern will have to fall on defense and that should leave little room to have a prolific offensive night. He is averaging a lot more points this season comparing to the last but still it won't be easy playing against OKC and their fast pace offense and still be able to perform on both ends. Something would have to give I expect it to be his point total that sits on 15.5. 

Under 15.5 points in the full event at odds 1.85

An interesting duel will be happening under the rim where Vucevic will have to battle both Ibaka and Kanter. The line given to Kanter stands @ 13.5 points and there is a thin value in playing over just because Kanter will be better than Dedmon and Jason Smith when Vucevic sits down. Smaller stake for this one. 

Over 13.5 points in the full event at odds 1.85

Philly is stacked big guys season after season, but a potential dark horse star has risen in the last year  or so in the likes of Isaiah Canaan. He is playing really well and he is putting up nice numbers so far. What is more important for this game is that he doesn't rely on drives to the basket but rather to his jump shot which is good for him cause he wouldn't stand a chance in the Jazz paint. During preseason and in the first game of the regluar season he hasn't scored less than 9 and I expect him to go over that in this game too. 

Over 9.5 points in the full event at odds 1.85

David Lee changed the environment this summer and came to Boston hoping to be a bigger cog in the team than he was in Golden State, but he is still adjusting to the system Celtics play. He was struggling against an athletic inside defense by the Sixers and he faces equally tough Toronto defense tonight. Unless he steps out to 12-15 ft range and hits a couple or gets to FT line 6 or 7 times, he is in for another low scoring night. Smaller stake for this one. 

Under 12.5 points in the full event at odds 1.85

Andre Drummond is having a great season so far and he has been sort of a center piece for this Detroit offense. But He is facing Bulls tonight where the defenders of the paint are showing an amazing cohesion this season, especially Pau who seems to be quick on his feet this season. Detroit will have a tough game tonight and Drummond, in particular, will have no easy baskets, and he might even go to FT line a lot, where you wouldn't want him to be. 

Under 16.5 points in the full even at odds 1.85

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Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards

NBA season full be in full motion tonight where we have a 14 game schedule and it's like Christmas. What I noticed immediately is the over under line bookmakers gave for this game. Skiles is on the verge of having a really good roster in Orlando and I believe their tanking days are behind them. He is very known for a defensive approach to the game and I believe he has the team with just a right amount of talent and physicality to achieve his plan. They will host the Wizzards tonight in an interesting game. Wizards are a team that can either for 70 or 120 points on any given night. But they are basically extremely reliant on their back-court to carry with the shooting proves of Beal and driving skills of Wall. None of those will fare well against a beefed up and generally higher ( literally higher) squad of Orlando. I am very confident that this game won't go near a line set by the bookmakers and this is the game I will put a medium stake on. Good Luck.

The match between Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards will end with under 205.50 points in full event at odds 1.87

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Roma vs Udinese

This is a very tough 2-week stretch for They played last week 3 games and will be doing so in the next 7 days as well. Considering they are standing good in the Seria A and not so well in the Champions League, they will need to prioritize focus on the game against Leverkusen next week. But that focus will have to manifest itself somewhere. This analysis is basically a risk assessment bet. They play against Udinese that should not pose a real treat for them, but they are coming off a tough game against Fiorentina, and they traveling to Milano for a clash against Inter on Saturday, only to face a deciding match against Leverkusen on Wednesday. So they will have to sacrifice somewhere and my guess is that Udinese game has the least importance for them. They can win with a reserve squad here if they play a solid game and this is where I see a chance of this game being a good value bet on the underdog. The odds are really good for me and I will back this option with a medium stake. Good Luck.

Udinese Asian Handicap +1.50 in ordinary time at odds 1.83

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Atlanta Hawks vs Detroit Pistons

These teams met in the last game of the preseason, and Detroit won in a pretty one sided game. But the circumstances are way more different today. Atlanta rested all the key players on Friday night, but today they will be charging full steam! They want to open the season with a win and there is an interesting match ahead of us. There will be a lot of difficulty of the Pistons tonight as they face the Hawks full defensive squad at one end, and then a fast paced spacing offense on the other. I can easily see Detroit regressing to a more individual approach to the game which in terms yields a low scoring game. Medium stake for the official NBA betting season opener. Good Luck.

The match between Atlanta Hawks and Detroit Pistons will end with under 198.50 points in full event at odds 2.05

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PSG vs St Etienne

There is an interesting movement in the market into the favor of the home team. It seems like bookmakers and bettors alike are certain that PSG will dominate St Etienne in this game and I just love these types of games. This is the moment where betting against general public has value. If you look at the PSG results they seem impressive, but a HT/FT stat shows that they are not dominating all that much. 5 out of 10 games were undecided at the half time and the same stat goes for St Etienne as well. I am seizing an opportunity for a thin value bet here as the odds are actually going up. They currently top out at 2.20 but they may go higher still. I believe that as the match draws near more bettors will realize and invest heavily, which in terms will bring the value down, but at these odds i am happy to back this option with a medium stake. Good Luck.

Outcome of the half time is either x or 2 at odds 2.20

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AFC Bournemouth vs Tottenham Hotspur

In the days leading up to this match, I found it quite confusing that the odds given here are that high. As an explanation, I reasoned that couple of factors may have led the bookmakers to have less faith in the Spurs than i do. First of Totneham has only one win in the last 6 games in all competitions. Some may take that as a sign that they are on the decline of form. Second factor is that this is a 3rd game for the Spurs in a week and fatigue is a consideration, but there was in international break so they had plenty of time to get ready for this tempo. I recon that treands and a subjective thing, especially with the sample size this small, so i choose to ignore the stats and recent resultsa and focus purely on this game. Tottenham has a better squad and they are way more likely to come off as winners today, and even if there is a shred of value on that option, which there is, i am unwilling to skip it. Smaller stake for this one. Good Luck.

Tottenham Hotspur to win against AFC Bournemouth in ordinary time at odds 2.25

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Performance review

We have made some tweaks in our pick selection and bounced back from a downswing around 70th - 80th and we are really happy with our results. These first 100 picks were sort of a benchmark for us where we set some goals up and most of them were achieved:

Having a win rate over 55% ✔
Having average odds slightly better than 2.0 ✔
Having ROI % run over 10%, ✔
Post picks with regular frequency, minimum 5 a week ✔
Objective focus on value/general public ✔
Fine tune stake size system to minimize risk and maximize profit
Fine tune publishing system so that picks get to bettors in a timely fashion ✔
Set up a regular weekly preview blog

Most of them we were able to accomplish but we are still working on a mailing system to speed up a delivery process because lots of our picks are extremely time sensitive. And the stake size strategy is still kind of a mystery for us. We know that staking the same amounts on odds ranging from 1.57 to 7.2 is probably not the most efficient strategy, but the sample size of 100 picks is still too low for us to adjust it so until we find a best way to calculate the real value/stake size, we will continue to stake every pick with 8 points. This is what first 100 picks look like in numbers:

• Average odds:      2.10
• Winrate:                 58%
• Total staked:         796
• Total Returned:     976.08
• ROI:                        22.62%
• Profit:                     180.08

A couple of the goals in the coming months will be a broader focus on sports other than football and including a suggestion box for you to ask about games you want to bet on. Most people like to bet on teams with heart in mind and that is one of the reasons they are losing, so the" analyze this game" section could be a success. Next review will be after 150 bets and until then, Good Luck.

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Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers

The home side is an offensive minded squad that plays aggressive style football, and with a quite success. 5 out of the last 9 games they've played ended with at least 4 goals. Attacking teams often are vulnerable to counter attacks so I expect this game to be very efficient. The away team has a solid roster and they are capable of very fast counter attack strategy. Last time these teams met, there was 5 goals on the match. There is value in the over 2.75 bet and with great odds I am to back it with a smaller stake. Good Luck.

Total goals over 2.75 goals in ordinary time at odds 1.84

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Gent vs Valencia

There is an interesting dynamic in the group H of this year's Champions League. With Zenit winning all three games, and Valencia occupying the second spot on the table, an important battle is being fought for the third spot that leads to Europe League. Gent has drawn the first game with Lyon and they need to collect any amount of points before they face them for a rematch in France. The best opportunity for that is a match against Valencia. This will be one of the most important games for them this season and motivation is the key for this game. They have a solid squad and are doing well in the domestic championship, but a spring in Europe is a priority for them. Valencia has the second spot almost secured and a point in Belgium is not a bad result for them either. Bookmakers are giving really good odds on a home team double chance and there is a ton of value in backing this option. Medium stake for this one. Good Luck.

Ordinary time's outcome is either x or 1 at odds 1.86

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Arsenal vs Everton

All eyes were on Arsenal when they played a Champions League group game against Bayern Munich. In a very important match, they performed well, but the result is a bit misleading. Arsenal was maybe a slightly better in a high-pressure game and they got the points needed. But the real cost of that game will be shown today. They host Everton and are already expected to win 3 points, but I don't think it is going to be that easy for them. Everton is completing a 3 game series against top clubs from Premier League and today's game will by no means be a rollover for them. They have a good squad and will try to exploit the emotional fatigue home team has and a surprise here is not impossible. Smaller stake for this one. Good Luck.

Everton Asian Handicap +1.50 in ordinary time at odds 1.79

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Leicester City vs Crystal Palace

Both of the teams are playing well and they are separated only by a single point. An interesting game is ahead of us because it's a direct duel of the teams that are aiming for that spot on the table leading to Euro cups. An  interesting match is expected today as both of the clubs will be pressing for the win. Neither team would be happy with a draw  so I expect an entertaining match and, very likely an efficient one. Leicester likes to start strong and they are known for scoring early goals this season so don't miss out the beginning of the match and hopefully enjoy the goal-packed match today. Smaller stake for this one. Good Luck.

Total goals over 2.50 goals in ordinary time at odds 1.75

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Orlando Magic vs Memphis Grizzlies

This is the final test for both of these teams before the season starts on Tuesday night. Memphis has a perfect score in the preseason and they have been doing a stellar job trying out all the rotations and the offensive adjustments. They are one of the best defensive teams in the league and they are extremely adept to limiting teams to a small number of points. Orlando is at the point where they finally can stop tanking and start building their team for the playoffs in the near future. Today they will struggle against a Grizzlies defense as they are still a young team not really equipped with the tools to overcome the "grit and grind" weight. Smaller stake for this one. Good Luck.

The match between Orlando Magic and Memphis Grizzlies will end with under 186.50 points in full event at odds 1.82

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Schalke 04 vs Sparta Prague

Schalke is playing really well. They are playing an aggressive style football where they are outrunning opponents and spacing the field really well, which is in terms directly reflected in their results. They won 7 out of last 10 games and they are very entertaining to watch. Sparta will come today hoping that they can win any number of points but ultimately, they are facing the fact that the second place in the group is their reality. So they will go for broke today and I expect to see an aggressive style from them as well. If things turn that way, the home team will have the advantage as they will have no real need to adjust to their opponents. There is a value in the bet on the home side and I am backing it up with a smaller stake. Good Luck.

Schalke 04 to win against Sparta Prague in ordinary time at odds 1.75

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FK Qabala vs Borussia Dortmund

Bookmakers and general betting public are at it again. This game is in my opinion not as one sided as the odds would have you think. It's not the teams that are the problem, it's the perceived league strength. Azerbaijan league gets no credit in the bookmakers assessment of the odds for this game. Mistake. Qabala has been steadily building a good team and they are playing strong defensive football. And when you look at the table standings, they are looking mighty strong. Dortmund, on the other hand, is showing signs of slowing down. So my prediction for this game is either Dortmund gets out all their frustrations and play a perfect game in Azerbaijan, scoring 4 or 5, or they continue their struggles against a very good defensive home teams. This is one of those times I go with the underdog and I am ready to back Qabala +2.25 with a medium stake. Good Luck.

FK Qabala Asian Handicap +2.25 in ordinary time at odds 1.73

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Miami Heat vs Washington Wizards

NBA preseason is closing to an end and each of these teams is in the process of fine tuning the team. NBA preseason often serves for the ability check of the second unit in the team and this is what I think what will decide this match. Both coaches were mixing the roster quite a bit during this preseason and I just think that, with no competitive motivation, best players won't see a lot of minutes in this game. And when it comes to the bench players that will actually play a lot tonight, Miami has a way more depth. Their second unit is miles ahead of Wizzards one, and nothing short of an extremely prolific shooting night will save the Wizzards from losing this one. There is a thin value line with Heat -3.5 and I am willing to back it with a smaller stake. Good Luck.

Miami Heat Asian Handicap -3.50 in full event at odds 1.79

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Galatasaray vs Benfica

There is an incredible amount of value in this game. My estimate is that bookmakers and the betting public are really misled by the fact that Benfica won on the road against Atletico Madrid. But whoever watched that game can attest to the fact that they were by no chance a better team in that game. They only shot 2 times on the goal and scored twice. I think they are in for a sobering game today in Turkey. Galatasaray has an amazing squad and they just need one game to start taking off. I think this is a perfect opportunity to see that amazing potential Galata has and I just cannot miss out on this value given by the bookmakers. Medium stake for these odds, that's how comfortable I am. Good Luck.

Galatasaray to win against Benfica in ordinary time at odds 3.25

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Atletico Madrid vs FC Astana

Bookmakers took no mercy on FC Astana and lines are so unfavorable on them that it might more profitable betting against the spread that is currently cover -2.5 for an even odds game. Although there is a definite success line betting against the spread of overwhelming favorites, we are going to back the other option for today's game. This game is going to be officiated by Aleksei Kulbakov. That in itself is not interesting unless you delve a bit deeper into his stats. He is not known as a strict ref that shows a lot of cards on his games, and only occasionally that number goes over 3. There is an overview of the games he conducted.

It is easily deducible that, FC Astana being a huge underdog here, there won't be much tension on this game and cards should not present an issue for either of these teams. Medium stake for this one. Good Luck.

Total cards in this game less than 5.5 in ordinary time at odds 1.71 

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L. A. Lakers vs Portland Trail Blazers

Both of these teams seem to be destined for a season without making the playoffs, even though they have somewhat respectable rosters. Tonight they have the opportunity to end up a preseason on the high note and we are very likely going to witness a close and interesting match. Lakers are the favorites here, as they should be, but I wouldn't just easily dismiss the Blazers as they showed much character in the previous games. One of the deciding factors for tonight is going to be the absence of Kobe Bryant and as soon as te news broke, odds started to shift, and I believe we will see them move further as the game draws near. I think Portland can cover they 5.5 spread and I am willing to back that option with a smaller stake. Good Luck.

Portland Trail Blazers Asian Handicap +5.50 in full event at odds 1.80

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