PSG vs St Etienne

There is an interesting movement in the market into the favor of the home team. It seems like bookmakers and bettors alike are certain that PSG will dominate St Etienne in this game and I just love these types of games. This is the moment where betting against general public has value. If you look at the PSG results they seem impressive, but a HT/FT stat shows that they are not dominating all that much. 5 out of 10 games were undecided at the half time and the same stat goes for St Etienne as well. I am seizing an opportunity for a thin value bet here as the odds are actually going up. They currently top out at 2.20 but they may go higher still. I believe that as the match draws near more bettors will realize and invest heavily, which in terms will bring the value down, but at these odds i am happy to back this option with a medium stake. Good Luck.

Outcome of the half time is either x or 2 at odds 2.20

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AFC Bournemouth vs Tottenham Hotspur

In the days leading up to this match, I found it quite confusing that the odds given here are that high. As an explanation, I reasoned that couple of factors may have led the bookmakers to have less faith in the Spurs than i do. First of Totneham has only one win in the last 6 games in all competitions. Some may take that as a sign that they are on the decline of form. Second factor is that this is a 3rd game for the Spurs in a week and fatigue is a consideration, but there was in international break so they had plenty of time to get ready for this tempo. I recon that treands and a subjective thing, especially with the sample size this small, so i choose to ignore the stats and recent resultsa and focus purely on this game. Tottenham has a better squad and they are way more likely to come off as winners today, and even if there is a shred of value on that option, which there is, i am unwilling to skip it. Smaller stake for this one. Good Luck.

Tottenham Hotspur to win against AFC Bournemouth in ordinary time at odds 2.25

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Performance review

We have made some tweaks in our pick selection and bounced back from a downswing around 70th - 80th and we are really happy with our results. These first 100 picks were sort of a benchmark for us where we set some goals up and most of them were achieved:

Having a win rate over 55% ✔
Having average odds slightly better than 2.0 ✔
Having ROI % run over 10%, ✔
Post picks with regular frequency, minimum 5 a week ✔
Objective focus on value/general public ✔
Fine tune stake size system to minimize risk and maximize profit
Fine tune publishing system so that picks get to bettors in a timely fashion ✔
Set up a regular weekly preview blog

Most of them we were able to accomplish but we are still working on a mailing system to speed up a delivery process because lots of our picks are extremely time sensitive. And the stake size strategy is still kind of a mystery for us. We know that staking the same amounts on odds ranging from 1.57 to 7.2 is probably not the most efficient strategy, but the sample size of 100 picks is still too low for us to adjust it so until we find a best way to calculate the real value/stake size, we will continue to stake every pick with 8 points. This is what first 100 picks look like in numbers:

• Average odds:      2.10
• Winrate:                 58%
• Total staked:         796
• Total Returned:     976.08
• ROI:                        22.62%
• Profit:                     180.08

A couple of the goals in the coming months will be a broader focus on sports other than football and including a suggestion box for you to ask about games you want to bet on. Most people like to bet on teams with heart in mind and that is one of the reasons they are losing, so the" analyze this game" section could be a success. Next review will be after 150 bets and until then, Good Luck.

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